The effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to be felt quickly across Washington, according to governance and economic experts watching the policy unfold.
Washington’s ports and northern border handle billions of dollars of goods going back and forth, many of which are now subject to tariffs by the Trump Administration and retaliatory tariffs from trade partners in Mexico and Canada.
Far and away, the largest import for Washington is oil, accounting for $8 billion coming across the border, mostly into the refinery in Anacortes. According to Sen. Maria Cantwell’s office, the lower 10% tariff applied to energy products will add $800 million to Washingtonians’ costs. The majority of natural gas in Washington also comes from Canada, which is also impacted by the 10% tariff.
Jacob Vigdor, a professor at the University of Washington on Public Policy and Governance, says Washington’s refineries may start looking at bringing in crude oil from other markets because of the tariff.
“It’s going to cost more to ship it here. It’s going to lead to higher prices one way or another,” Vigdor says.
The state’s food supply is in a similar predicament, particularly this time of year. Peppers, tomatoes, avocadoes, green onions, sweet onions, and berries are largely imported from Mexico this time of year. Vigdor says those price increases will likely be immediate.
“If you are managing a grocery store, you have to start thinking about how much do I want to charge for this. Do I want to charge for these tomatoes at what it costs to get it or what it’s going to cost me to replace it? Because that replacement cost is going to be higher because the products you are bringing in are going to be higher,” Vigdor said.
Washington also imports many bovine, animal fats, and canola oil. Lumber imports are also subjected to tariffs, meaning items made of wood, like homes.
“[Producers] are going to pass some of that tariff on to the consumer. They’re not going to just cover the entire cost of that tariff themselves. It’s going to be passed,” said Jeff Luckhead, a distinguished professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Washington State University.
Washington’s agriculture sector is already the target of retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China. Washington is the nation’s largest producer of wheat, with a target of 15% tariffs from China.
On his platform, Truth Social, President Trump posted, “To the great farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external products on April 2nd. Have Fun!”
Vigdor says there’s a chance that Washington shoppers will benefit from lower prices on Washington agricultural products like cherries and apples if retaliatory tariffs do come to pass.
“From the consumer perspective, there may be some benefits down the road so long as you have the taste for the right kind of food. Once we start harvesting them in a few months.”
However, Vigdor adds, there will likely be a “glut” for many of the U.S.’s agricultural products. For wheat, soybeans, and corn, the U.S. is the cheapest producer, and other nations have used trade to take advantage for their own economic interest, Luckhead said.
" We cannot consume all the wheat that we produce in the US. There is just so much wheat. so much corn, soybeans, we cannot consume that. All of it has to go somewhere.” Luckhead said.
It’s similar to auto parts and cars, some of Washington’s other large imports from other countries. The President also posted, “IF COMPANIES MOVE TO THE UNITED STATES, THERE ARE NO TARIFFS!!!” though both Luckhead and Vigdor are skeptical about the impacts.
“Labor is cheaper in Mexico than in the U.S.,” Luckhead said. “If we were to bring all of that back the cost of production would go up. That would lead to higher prices for consumers.”
The cost of labor aside, Vigdor says, labor for those kinds of industries is seldom done by humans, as they were decades ago.
“It may very well lead to more manufacturing happening in the us but it might not create a lot of jobs because if you’re going to build a brand new plant to manufacture something in the United States it’s going to have the latest tech in it and the latest tech is something that relies very little on humans and is much more automated,” Vigdor said.
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