Runs, home runs, torpedo bats — I get why the headlines are where they are. I understand. Offense is fun. Homers are glorious four-category events. "Chicks dig the long ball."
But be a sport and allow me to change the conversation for a moment. Meet me in Pittsburgh. Yeah, let's talk about the 1-5 Pirates.
It's not a pretty start for the black and gold. Three walk-off losses. Closer David Bednar was demoted to the minors Tuesday. Key SP Jared Jones is out indefinitely, shifting to the 60-day IL.
But there's one thing the Pirates do better — and more often — than any other team. They run. Oh man, how they run.
The Bucs are already up to 17 steals (four clear of the running Padres) and have been caught just once. This one Pittsburgh club owns 13% of the stolen bases in baseball this year. You want a bag, you dial up the Pirates. (Meanwhile, some teams are flashing the red light. The Athletics, Guardians and Astros are still bagless — the nomad A's don't even have a steal attempt — while the Yankees and Phillies are struck on one steal each. In defense of the Yankees, you can't steal a base if you just hit a homer.
This should be the year Oneil Cruz turns into a mega-star. We saw the growth in the second half of last year (.821 OPS after the break, 15-for-15 on bags) and this spring he's a perfect 5-for-5 on steals. He's also improving his plate discipline — note the six walks, even with six strikeouts. Just beginning an age-26 season, Cruz has an enormous ceiling.
He's one of my most-rostered players, a common third-round pick in March. I might take him in the second round if I were drafting tonight. And you know about his hard-hit profile, hammer of the gods.
Okay, so you can't pick up Cruz. Can I interest deep-leaguers in Isiah Kiner-Falefa?
He's off to a .333 start, with more walks than strikeouts. He's stolen four bases. IKF qualifies at second, short and third in Yahoo leagues (we love roster flexibility), and is free to add in 82% of our pools. I know he's batting ninth at the moment, but there's a fair chance he could get promoted if the production sticks.
Catcher Joey Bart hasn't clicked yet, but give it time. His 80 games with the Bucs last year were a smash (.265/.337/.462, with 13 homers); it's glorious to be freed from San Francisco's roomy park. This is the cheapest 15-20 homer candidate on the catcher board, rostered in just 17% of Yahoo. Bart had some prospect juice in his Bay Area days and it's merely his age-28 season.
Bryan Reynolds will come around. He always does. He's one of those Ian Happ All-Stars, the boring vets who are decent value grabs for the middle of your outfield. April has historically been the worst slugging month for Reynolds, so a slow start doesn't concern me. If his stats still look mediocre by the end of the month, circle him as a buy-low target.
Good fantasy managers are always auditing the bullpens, so we have to talk about the Bednar demotion. You'd suspect he'll be in Triple-A temporarily, but we can't unsee the poor work he did last year (5.77 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). Every loss hurts in its own way, but games blown at the end carry an extra sting. It forces teams — even non-contending teams — into action.
Right-hander David Santana is probably the pitcher most likely to get the next Pittsburgh save chance. Santana did decent work in 44.1 innings last year (2.44 ERA, 0.925 WHIP) and had 4.55 whiffs for every walk. His last two appearances came in the eighth inning, when Bednar was still around. Santana has been added liberally since the Bednar news but he remains widely available, trading at 9%.
If you badly need saves, you could leave Pittsburgh entirely. A.J. Puk finished off the Yankees on Tuesday, though he did allow a home run. Justin Martinez worked the previous inning, and against the thicker part of the New York lineup. The Tigers will probably use a closer-by-committee — the matchups pointed to Tommy Kahnle in a win at Seattle (also note, Casey Mize looked excellent). Anthony Bender recorded a save for Miami, a tidy four-pitch appearance.
Another way to manage a fantasy bullpen is to backline the winning teams. Look at the undefeated Dodgers, their bullpen is overflowing with rosterable arms. Tanner Scott has two saves, Alex Vesia and Blake Treinen have one each, Kirby Yates has three scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. With more MLB games being decided in the bullpens these days, it's a good place to hunt for stealth wins, not just saves. And it's also a tidy way to manage your ratios.
If he's sitting in the Chavez Ravine bullpen, I probably have some interest. Occam's Razor, amigos.
