Masters 2025: The green jacket is Rory McIlroy's to lose

AUGUSTA, Ga. — The green jacket is now Rory McIlroy's to win ... or lose.

In the span of two days, McIlroy has gone from favorite (entering the tournament) to heartbreak (after seemingly ejecting himself from contention with a pair of back-nine double bogeys in Round 1) to back in the hunt (after a second round 66) to overwhelming favorite (thanks to a second straight 66).

He'll head into Sunday's final round at 12-under par, two shots in front of Bryson DeChambeau and with one massive question hanging over his head: Can he finally end the major drought that's been hanging over his head for more than a decade?

How did we get here after a wild Round 3 at Augusta National? Well ...

How it started

At the start of Round 3, the leaderboard looked like this:

1. Justin Rose -82. Bryson DeChambeau -7T3. Rory McIlroy -6T3. Corey Conners -6T5. Matt McCarty -5T5. Shane Lowery -5T5. Scottie Scheffler -5T5. Tyrrell Hatton -5

Less than 15 minutes after the final pairing teed off, it looked like this:

1. Rory McIlroy -9T2. Justin Rose -8T2. Bryson DeChambeau -8T4. Shane Lowery -7T4. Corey Conners -7T6. Jason Day -6T6. Viktor Hovland -6T6. Scottie Scheffler -6

Less than an hour into Round 3, it looked like this:

1. Rory McIlroy -112. Bryson DeChambeau -8T3. Shane Lowery -7T3. Justin Rose -7T6. Jason Day -6T6. Sungjae Im -6T6. Scottie Scheffler -6

Win probability entering Round 3

Per Datagolf.com, McIlroy was the probable favorite to win the tournament as Round 3 began, followed by DeChambeau, Scheffler and Rose.

BetMGM odds also pegged McIlroy (+340) as the favorite, also followed by DeChambeau (+360), Scheffler (+400) and Rose (+900).

After McIlroy chipped in for eagle at No. 2, his probability had risen to 36.6%. When he dropped another birdie at No. 5 — giving him the first 3-3-3-3-3 start to a round in Masters history — his probability had ballooned to 60.3%.

Rory tries to run away

In the 89-year history of the Masters, no player has started a round with five straight 3s. To do so would mean making birdie at No. 1, eagle at No. 2, birdie at No. 3, then pars at Nos. 4 and 5. So yeah, it's hard. But then McIlroy birdied one, chipped in for eagle at 2, then parred 3 and 4 and birdied 5.

For good measure, he parred No. 6 for a sixth-straight 3 ... breaking his own record he'd set one hole earlier.

The plot thickens as the field tightens

In the early going, it looked like McIlroy was going to run away from the field, having built a four-shot lead after seven holes. A bogey at 8 stopped the momentum a bit, and then a three-putt at 10 dropped him back another stroke.

At the same time, DeChambeau had birdied No. 8:

... and saved par with a clutch putt over at No. 9. The lead was down to just one, and McIlroy's win probability had narrowed:

By the time everyone made the turn, there were eight golfers within four shots of McIlroy, with every birdie and bogey reshuffling the leaderboard like a deck of cards.

The eagle

At soon as McIlroy hit his second shot to the par-5 13th, he started walking down the fairway right after it.

Two days ago, he'd double bogeyed the hole to seemingly punt himself out of contention. And now, 48 hours later, he was staring down an approach that would land six feet from the hole. He'd make the eagle, pushing his lead up to four shots ... and thoughts of a green jacket racing through his head.

Checking back in on those probability odds, with the eagle McIlroy's odds to win were up to 71.5%.

The Putt

Of course Round 3 had to end like this ... with Bryson DeChambeau staring at a 48-foot putt from just off the green, needing to get home in two in order to be in the final pairing with McIlroy. And what did he do? He drained it of course.

Sunday's final pairing: Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau.

The contenders

Rory McIlroy (-12): Did you know he's yet to win the Masters? Did you know it's the only major championship he needs to complete the career grand slam? And did you know that, after winning four majors by the age of 25 — something only he, Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus have done — he hasn't won another going on 11 years now? Of course you did, because it's been a storyline following McIlroy for more than a decade now. He's got a boatload on the line come Sunday afternoon. Best Masters finish: 2

Bryson DeChambeau (-10): If he had any touch on his approaches Saturday, DeChambeau would be closer than he is to McIlroy. That said, he's kept himself in this thing with bombs off the tee and touch around the green. Best Masters finish: T6

Corey Conners (-8): Give him credit for hanging with McIlroy, his playing partner, on Saturday. Conners shook off a couple early bogeys to keep himself in contention, something that's actually not new for the 33-year-old Canadian. He has three top 10s at Augusta, but he's never finished better than T6 at any major. Best Masters finish: T6

Patrick Reed (-6): Wait, what? Yep, the 2018 winner has quietly moved up the leaderboard thanks to a 3-under 69 on Saturday. He obviously knows how to win at Augusta National. Best Masters finish: 1

Ludig Åberg (-6): Åberg was runner-up a year ago in his first Masters appearance. The 25-year-old has major talent, meaning it's only a matter of time before he wins one of these things. Best Masters finish: 2

Where is Scottie Scheffler?

Stagnant. He never could get anything going. He carded just one birdie on the front nine, which was wiped out by a bogey at No. 7, and only one on the back to finish at even par on his round and 5-under for the tournament.

A microcosm of his round came at the par3 16, when he dropped a beautiful tee shot to 13 feet, then watched as his birdie putt lipped out.

He's not out of contention, but to get back in he'll need to go low on Sunday, which isn't necessarily his forte. Yes, he's No. 1 in the world, but he's gotten there not with 63s, but with consistent under-par rounds and very few mistakes.

Win probability going into final round

Here's where it stands with 18 holes to play:

And finally ... why?

Comes courtesy of Jason Day who, standing on the 16th green, decided for some reason to chip the ball instead of using his putter. It didn't work. He ended up bogeying the hole.