EDMONTON, Alberta — Voters in Canada's oil-rich Alberta province were deciding on Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence, testing national unity as Canadians rally against U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and threats to claim Canada as the 51st U.S. state.
Monday's vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada's proven oil reserves — the fourth largest in the world — will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of Monday’s referendum, an unusually high level of early participation that underscores the intense interest in the province’s future. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, with results expected in the hours afterward.
Alberta is Canada’s oil heartland and cowboy country, a conservative stronghold whose political culture has long had more in common with the American West than much of Canada. Resentment toward Ottawa runs deep, but has not traditionally translated into widespread support for independence.
But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics and is not going away.
Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans to deliver a decisive vote for unity. "Vote like Canada's future depends on it because it does," he told a rally Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, cited a poll showing just 22% support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.
The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a deadly weekend fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright that killed four service members and injured 39 others, including 19 critically, during military training.
Crowds erupt when Carney talks about the US
The biggest cheers at Carney’s rallies in Calgary and Edmonton came when he spoke about diversifying Canada’s trade away from the United States. The applause showed how Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have fueled Canadian nationalism even in traditionally conservative Alberta.
Liberal prime ministers have long faced resentment from Albertans over federal energy policies, but Carney has emerged as an unusually popular figure by backing policies more friendly to fossil fuels, such as a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast.
Joining Smith in a show of unity against independence, Carney warned that the referendum comes at the “worst possible time” and urged Albertans not to use their votes merely to send Ottawa a message.
Smith opposes separation
By calling a referendum she opposes, Smith acknowledged pressure from separatist activists within her governing United Conservative Party who helped bring her to power. Some of those activists helped oust former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022.
Kenney said separatism had traditionally been a fringe cause, with independence parties typically attracting only 1% or 2% of the vote. He said the pandemic mobilized activists angry over public health restrictions and government authority.
Separatist leader Jeff Rath said federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates drove him toward independence, while Tanya Clemens, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, said pandemic restrictions spurred political organizing. Keith Wilson, the group's other co-chair, was a lead lawyer for the 2022 trucker convoy that paralyzed downtown Ottawa for weeks in a protest against vaccine mandates and other COVID-19 restrictions.
Alberta’s longstanding grievances with Ottawa
Wilson argues that Alberta’s grievances go deeper. With much of Canada’s population concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, he said Liberal governments can win elections without significant support in Alberta, leaving the province vulnerable to federal policies opposed by its energy industry.
Wilson argues that Carney’s proposed Pacific Link pipeline illustrates the dysfunction, saying federal restrictions have discouraged private investment and could leave taxpayers financing the project.
At the same time, Wilson rejects Alberta becoming an American state.
“I have no interest in substituting a master that rules over my children’s future, who’s in Ottawa, with a new one who’s in Washington,” he said.
Other separatist leaders have sought contact with the Trump administration. Rath and fellow independence advocates met three times with U.S. State Department officials in Washington to discuss Alberta’s future.
Chief Sheldon Sunshine of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation condemned those meetings, calling them “absolutely treasonous to the people of Canada, people of Alberta.”
Sunshine said Alberta cannot leave Canada without First Nations’ consent, citing treaties that predate the province — and said his nation would remain part of Canada even if Albertans vote for independence.
Dustin Degenhardt, a Wainwright voter, said many Albertans remain angry over their treatment by Ottawa.
“Alberta has essentially been treated as, you know, a colony,” he said. “They want to take and take and take from us and not return anything.”
Separatists see success even without victory
Wilson said separatists had already succeeded in generating unprecedented discussion about Alberta’s future.
“I think we’ve already hit success when you look at the voter turnout,” he said.
Rath said he would be thrilled if 30% of Albertans vote to begin the separation process. He wants Smith ousted as UCP leader and said the party could splinter, potentially creating a new pro-independence political party.
Taylor MacIsaac, a Wainwright voter who grew up in rural Alberta, supports separation.
“I think it’ll be good for Alberta to separate personally, as a very conservative individual that grew up in rural Alberta,” she said.
Separation debate may outlast Monday's vote
Some Albertans hope Monday’s vote ends the debate and heads off a prolonged independence struggle like Quebec’s.
Dave Malka, 59, of Edmonton, criticized spending money on a “referendum on a referendum” rather than healthcare.
With Trump threatening Canada, Malka said, “It seems to be happening at the absolute worst time when we should be united, instead we’re fighting among ourselves.”
Malka expects a decisive rejection but fears separatists won’t give up. “This is only the start of separation Armageddon, if you will. This is their starting point,” he said.
Jake Graham, 35, of Calgary, attended Carney’s rallies wearing maple leaf pants and a Canada hockey jacket. He hopes the vote ends the debate.
“I hope this squashes this for a long time to come and that it’s clear and decisive, that these grumblings disappear for a while and we can be a united Canada,” he said.
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Associated Press Writer Ty ONeil contributed to this report from Wainwright, Alberta.
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