We’re in a bit of a break from the active weather as we go into Friday night and early Saturday. Morning lows will be in the mid 30s to around 40 in the lowlands.
We’ll be watching for a band of scattered showers moving into the north coast by Saturday morning. These showers will push inland and expand in area on Saturday afternoon and evening. For the interior of Western Washington — including the Puget Sound region — rainfall will increase toward sunset and the evening will have rain from time to time. In the mountains, snow levels around 4,000 feet will slowly rise, so we’ll have a rain/snow mix at the lower passes.
A moderate atmospheric river will impact Western Washington Sunday into Monday, though the greater impacts from this system look to be just north of the border on Vancouver Island. Still, it will be rainy at times Sunday through at least Monday morning around the region with occasional gusty winds of 25-35mph. In the mountains, snow levels will rise to near 7,000 feet through the end of the weekend into Monday, meaning rain on all that new snow.
There is uncertainty as to how much of the rain will be absorbed and locked up in compacting the fresh snowpack and how much might runoff with snowmelt. Right now, the recent snow looks to mitigate the runoff effects somewhat. Still, with 2-5″ of rain Sunday through Monday in the Cascades and upwards of 6″ over the Olympics, rivers will spike higher. Right now, only the flood-prone Skokomish River in Mason County is expected to get into flood stage, but some of the other rivers flowing out of the central and north Cascades could get close to minor flood stage by late Monday.
Temperatures will rise well into the 50s for highs Sunday and Monday.
In the lowlands, an average of one to two inches of rain can be expected late Saturday through Monday with some ponding of water on roadways. However, compared to December, the soils are not as saturated and we don’t have the same leaf litter on the ground, so the impact of heavier downpours won’t be as pronounced. Less rainfall is expected in parts of the North Sound and islands due to Olympic Mountain rain shadowing.
We look to dry out a little earlier than previously expected — by later in the day Monday as high pressure starts to build and the atmospheric river is kicked northward into British Columbia before it fades. Tuesday will be dry but quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 50s for many in the lowlands, and even some low 60s across the southern sections of the area.
We look to have many days of dry weather beyond Monday. We could see rain-free conditions for a week to ten days starting Tuesday, with morning fog and clouds with some lowland sunshine and cooler highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s — still a little above average. The mountains will be mild with plenty of sunshine, which could further reduce the modest snowpack from melting and compaction.
© 2022 Cox Media Group
