It’ll be pretty quiet tonight and through much of Friday morning across the area ahead of a moderately strong atmospheric river system that has been evolving in the Pacific over the past few days.
Still, Friday morning will be tranquil in most areas with mainly cloudy skies.
By mid to late morning, breezes at the coast and northern waters will start to rise as rain begins across the north coast and far western part of the Strait. This line of heavier rainfall will move southeast slowly through the afternoon, and by 3–4 p.m., it will be raining — heavily in spots — across the northern waters and northwest interior, north and west of Everett, as well as the Strait and the coast.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for the north coast and northwest interior for Friday and Friday evening, as wind gusts on the water could reach 40–45 mph.
Rain will begin around the Everett-Seattle-Tacoma areas from 4–6 p.m., right as trick-or-treaters are heading out. Expect a soaker of a Halloween evening with standing water and blustery conditions, with some wind gusts over 20 mph around the metro areas and slightly stronger gusts across the north.
Rain will continue to increase through the later evening hours, with the possibility of some urban flooding from leaf-clogged storm drains. A quarter to half an inch of rainfall is expected around the Sound through the evening, with more falling across the north and the coast.
There could be a brief break overnight into Saturday before a second weather system moves in with more heavy rain ahead of daybreak. This will impact the area for most of Saturday morning before moving into the Cascades by afternoon.
A period of stronger winds, with gusts in the 35–45 mph range, is possible Saturday morning through early afternoon as a compact area of low pressure moves onshore. However, the location, strength, and movement of this feature are hard to pin down right now, so expect a windy first half of the day Saturday before the rain and wind subside. The area is also in a better position for wind gusts like this, should they occur, because last weekend’s strong winds removed many leaves as well as weaker branches and trees.
Following the heavier rain Saturday afternoon, a Puget Sound convergence zone will set up, bringing lingering showers to the central and north Sound. Snow levels, which have been above 7,000 feet with the atmospheric river, will drop to 3,500–4,000 feet late Saturday into Sunday, so a few inches of snow are possible at higher passes.
Rainfall totals for the Friday–Saturday timeframe will be in the 0.75- to 1.25-inch range across most lowland areas, with slightly higher amounts along the coast and in the north. Rainfall totals of 2–4 inches, with higher amounts in spots, will hit the mountains. This will cause rivers to rise by late in the weekend. The Skokomish River in Mason County could reach minor flood stage for the first time this season during and after the atmospheric river event, though such flooding is common. Little impact to property or travel is expected, though salmon might be seen crossing the roadway near Potlatch in minor flooding — another sign of fall in the Northwest.
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